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Nineteen years is a long time to wait for almost anything. When it comes to a share-price recovery, it can feel like an eternity. Bank of America's stock touched a new record on December 12th (and again on December 15th). That has at long last taken the world's second-largest bank by market capitalisation back above its share-price peak in 2006, before the ravages of the global financial crisis.
要等待几乎任何事物,19年都是一段漫长的时间。 而当涉及到股价复苏时,这更会让人感觉仿佛遥遥无期。 12月12日(以及12月15日),美国银行的股价创下新高。 这终于让这家全球市值第二大的银行股价回升至2006年全球金融危机肆虐前的峰值水平之上。

Some companies have waited even longer before climbing back to old highs. On December 10th shares in Cisco, a networking tech firm, finally surpassed levels reached in 2000, during the dotcom boom. In Japan, a deep slump that began in 1989 long burned through the stockmarket. The Topix index of stocks climbed to a new all-time high only last year.
有些公司等待股价重回历史高位的时间甚至更长。 12月10日,网络科技公司思科的股价终于超过了2000年互联网泡沫时期的水平。 在日本,自1989年开始的深度低迷长期笼罩着股市。 直到去年,东证股价指数(Topix)才攀升至历史新高。
Overall, indices around the world are far above their pre-financial-crisis highs: global share prices have risen by 135% since their peak in October 2007. But beneath the surface, the phenomenon of laggardly stocks is surprisingly common. Of the roughly 10,000 listed companies currently worth more than $100m and which existed before November 2007, around 36% remain below the share price they reached on the eve of the crisis. If anything, the measure is an underestimate, because it does not count companies that have collapsed entirely, or whose market value has fallen below the cut-off.
总体来看,全球各地的股指都远高于金融危机前的高点: 自2007年10月达到峰值以来,全球股价已上涨了135%。 但在表面之下,股价滞涨现象却出人意料地普遍。 在目前市值超过1亿美元且在2007年11月前就已上市的约1万家公司中, 约有36%的公司股价仍低于金融危机前夕的水平。 如果真要衡量的话,这一比例甚至被低估了, 因为它没有计入那些已经彻底倒闭或市值跌破门槛的公司。
Even in America, one in four stocks is down after the best part of two decades. Some are heavyweights: Verizon, a telecoms giant worth $172bn, is still below its 2007 peak. Recovery will be longer in the making for another bank, Citigroup, which is still down about 80% from its high. Even in America's technology sector, the jewel in the crown of a long and profitable bull market, 22% of firms trade for less than their pre-crisis levels.
即便在美国,近二十年来仍有四分之一的股票表现不佳。 其中不乏一些重量级企业:电信巨头威瑞森市值达1720亿美元,但其股价仍低于2007年的峰值。 另一家银行花旗集团的股价复苏之路将更为漫长,其股价仍较历史高点下跌约80%。 即便是在美国科技行业——这一长期盈利的牛市中的皇冠明珠—— 也有22%的公司股价低于金融危机前的水平。
The share of long-term losers is higher in other markets. About 42% of German stocks, 53% of British stocks and 70% of those of firms in Hong Kong sit below their 2007 levels in dollar terms today.
在其他市场,长期表现不佳的公司所占比例更高。 目前,约42%的德国股票、53%的英国股票以及70%的香港公司股票以美元计算,其股价仍低于2007年的水平。
If the figures are shocking at first glance, raise a glass to the powerful force of concentrated returns this Christmas. For all the worry about the weight of a few large firms in equity markets, a small number of stocks usually account for the bulk of returns. The share prices of Apple, Nvidia and Netflix are respectively up by 4,043%, 19,920% and 24,807% since 2007.
如果这些数据乍一看令人震惊,那么今年圣诞节,就让我们举杯共庆集中化回报的强大力量吧。 尽管人们担心少数几家大公司在股市中占据过重权重,但通常只有少数股票能带来大部分回报。 自2007年以来,苹果、英伟达和奈飞的股价分别上涨了4043%、19920%和24807%。
The trend is not just a curiosity of today's bull market, either. Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University notes that among listed American firms from 1925 to 2023, most have negative returns. Less than 3% of stocks account for all the increase in shareholder wealth in that time.
这种趋势并非只是当前牛市的一个奇特现象。 亚利桑那州立大学的亨德里克·贝森宾德指出,在1925年至2023年上市的美国公司中,大多数公司的回报率为负。 在此期间,不到3%的股票贡献了股东财富的全部增长。
Bank of America will cheer its return to old glory. But for most investors, the fact that a large share of firms live in the shadows of their former greatness is not a problem. The many are not so important. It's the few that count.
美国银行会为其重返昔日辉煌而欢呼雀跃。 但对大多数投资者而言,大量公司生活在昔日辉煌的阴影下并非问题所在。 多数公司并不那么重要。 真正重要的是少数几家公司。