On January 3rd it will have been 17 years since Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous founder of bitcoin, first unveiled the cryptocurrency. The most popular digital coin has cemented itself in the global financial order faster than any other asset. In recent years the crypto industry has gone from an object of mockery in mainstream finance and the target of outright hostility from regulators to being broadly accepted, even encouraged. Banks and asset managers are launching products and the latest cast of American regulators are crypto enthusiasts. In October bitcoin's market value peaked at $2.5trn.

1月3日，比特币的匿名创始人中本聪首次揭开这款加密货币的面纱，至今已过去17年。 比特币作为最受欢迎的数字货币，在全球金融秩序中站稳脚跟的速度，超过了其他任何资产。 近年来，加密货币行业从主流金融界的嘲讽对象、监管机构的众矢之的，转变为被广泛接受甚至受到鼓励的存在。 银行和资产管理公司纷纷推出相关产品，美国最新一届监管机构人员也成了加密货币的狂热拥趸。 10月，比特币市值一度飙升至2.5万亿美元。

Odd as it might seem, these victories now pose a problem for crypto. Prices have tumbled: bitcoin has dropped from an all-time high of around $126,000 in early October to just above $92,000. For a speculative asset—one which produces no income and relies solely on hopes for future capital gains—the absence of a fresh bullish narrative to justify further price rises is a challenge. And because wider acceptance has deepened crypto's links with other markets, the ripple effects from the dip will be felt far beyond the industry.

尽管看起来有些奇怪，但这些胜利如今却给加密货币带来了问题。 价格暴跌：比特币从10月初约12.6万美元的历史高点，跌至略高于9.2万美元的水平。 对于一种投机性资产（这种资产不产生任何收入，完全依赖对未来资本收益的期望）而言，缺乏新的看涨叙事来支撑价格进一步上涨，是一个挑战。 而且，由于更广泛的接受度加深了加密货币与其他市场的联系，此次下跌的连锁反应将远远超出加密货币行业本身。

It is hard to say anything with confidence about the future direction of an asset like bitcoin. Many investors (and financial journalists) have tried, and failed. But there has been a clear pattern to rallies in recent years. Every exhilarating upswing has been bound up with optimistic stories about greater acceptance.

对于像比特币这样的资产未来的走向，很难有十足把握地做出判断。 许多投资者（和金融记者）都曾尝试过，但均以失败告终。 不过，近年来加密货币的反弹行情呈现出明显的规律。 每一次令人兴奋的上涨行情，都与加密货币接受度提高的乐观故事紧密相连。

In 2020 and 2021 lockdowns and fiscal largesse were paired with the increasing provision of crypto trading by mainstream brokers. From late 2023 hopes rose that crypto exchange-traded funds would soon be launched. And, indeed, the first ETF applications were approved by America's regulators in January 2024. Donald Trump's election victory in November that year gave bitcoin another boost.

2020年和2021年，封锁措施和财政慷慨政策与主流经纪商日益增加的加密货币交易服务相辅相成。 从2023年末开始，人们开始寄希望于加密货币交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）即将推出。 事实上，2024年1月，美国监管机构批准了首批ETF申请。 同年11月，唐纳德·特朗普赢得大选，又为比特币注入了新的动力。

Today investors have no trouble getting their hands on bitcoin. Brokers offer access to a range of crypto assets to anyone with a phone. Some big investors have stayed away. This month crypto enthusiasts cheered the news that the Czech central bank had purchased $1m in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. But that was a drop in the ocean relative to the bank's $171bn in reserves. And most central banks still rule out including digital assets in their defensive hoards. The scope for higher trading volumes, then, seems limited.

如今，投资者要获取比特币轻而易举。 经纪商向任何拥有手机的人提供一系列加密货币资产的交易渠道。 不过，也有一些大型投资者持观望态度。 本月，加密货币爱好者为捷克央行购买了100万美元比特币和其他加密货币的消息欢呼雀跃。 但相对于该行1710亿美元的储备金而言，这不过是沧海一粟。 而且，大多数央行仍拒绝将数字资产纳入其防御性储备。 因此，交易量进一步增长的空间似乎有限。

The other price of victory is that the pain from a crypto crash will be felt more widely than in the past. The investors most exposed to the recent slump are those who behaved as if the boom would never end. That includes Strategy, a software company that is now mainly a leveraged bet on bitcoin, having borrowed to accumulate about $60bn-worth. The firm's market capitalisation is now below the value of its bitcoin holdings, raising the prospect of crypto fire-sales. It is not the only source of risk in the digital-asset universe. On October 10th some $19bn in leveraged crypto positions were wiped out after Mr Trump announced fresh 100% tariffs on China (the levies were walked back a few days later). No one knows how much leverage remains, but the further prices fall, the greater the risk of serial blow-ups.

胜利的另一个代价是，加密货币崩盘带来的痛苦将比过去更为广泛。 在近期这场暴跌中，受损最严重的投资者是那些认为繁荣将永无止境的人。 这包括软件公司Strategy，该公司如今主要成了比特币的杠杆押注者，已借贷积累了价值约600亿美元的比特币。 如今，该公司的市值已低于其持有的比特币价值，引发了加密货币抛售潮的担忧。 但这并非数字资产领域唯一的风险源。 10月10日，特朗普宣布对中国加征新一轮100%关税（几天后关税措施被撤回）后，约190亿美元的杠杆加密货币头寸被平仓。 没人知道还剩下多少杠杆，但价格跌得越厉害，连续爆仓的风险就越大。

The biggest risk of all is that miserable sentiment in cryptocurrency spreads to other markets. Since 2020 bitcoin has become more correlated with technology stocks. These could fall further if flighty crypto investors flee equity markets. The adoption of digital-asset products by mainstream financial firms has also bound crypto to traditional markets. BlackRock, which manages $13.5trn of assets, is custodian of the world's largest bitcoin ETF. One-third of the customers who bought into the fund as their first BlackRock product have gone on to invest in the firm's more classic ETFs. The European Systemic Risk Board, a financial watchdog, fears that the failure of a large crypto-investment product could spill across conventional finance. "The overall volumes have now reached levels that make this scenario a genuine concern," it wrote last month.

最大的风险在于，加密货币市场的低迷情绪会蔓延至其他市场。 自2020年以来，比特币与科技股的相关性增强。 如果善变的加密货币投资者逃离股市，这些科技股可能会进一步下跌。 主流金融公司采用数字资产产品，也将加密货币与传统市场捆绑在了一起。 管理着13.5万亿美元资产的黑石集团，是全球最大比特币ETF的托管人。 该基金三分之一的首次购买者，在购买该基金后，又继续投资了黑石更传统的ETF产品。 欧洲系统性风险委员会（一家金融监管机构）担心， 大型加密货币投资产品的失败可能会波及传统金融领域。 “总体交易量现已达到令人担忧的水平，使得这一情景成为真正值得关注的问题，”该委员会上月写道。

Stablecoins—crypto assets designed to hold their value and facilitate payments—are another source of overlap. The size of the outstanding market has grown by almost 50% in the past year, to more than $300bn. In July they won regulatory certainty in America, when the genius Act set out the assets their issuers could hold.

稳定币——旨在保持价值稳定并促进支付的加密货币资产——是另一个重叠领域。 过去一年，未偿还市场规模增长了近50%，达到3000多亿美元。 7月，美国《天才法案》明确了稳定币发行方可持有的资产，为稳定币带来了监管确定性。

But so far, most stablecoins are still used to transact in crypto rather than outside of it. That means bear markets in riskier crypto assets can drive outflows from stablecoins. Since these are mostly backed by American Treasuries, a shock could shake bond markets if issuers have to fire-sell assets to return cash to investors. Any stablecoin not fully backed with the safest assets may well "de-peg" and enter a bank-run-like spiral, accelerating liquidations.

但到目前为止，大多数稳定币仍主要用于加密货币交易，而非加密货币领域之外的交易。 这意味着，风险较高的加密货币资产的熊市可能导致稳定币资金外流。 由于这些稳定币大多以美国国债为支撑， 如果发行方不得不抛售资产以向投资者返还现金，可能会冲击债券市场。 任何未完全以最安全资产为支撑的稳定币，都很可能会“脱锚”，并陷入类似银行挤兑的恶性循环，加速清算。

Crypto may have exhausted most of the obvious catalysts for a proper rebound, from the greater ease of investment to more regulatory certainty. But one piece of news could just help it soar again. Enthusiasts got less than they had hoped for from the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, set up by Mr Trump in March. It has remained a vehicle for bitcoin acquired mainly as a result of law-enforcement seizures.

从投资便利性提高到监管确定性增强，加密货币可能已耗尽了大部分明显的反弹催化剂。 但有一条消息可能会再次助其飙升。 特朗普3月设立的战略比特币储备，让加密货币爱好者大失所望。 该储备仍主要是一个通过执法扣押获取比特币的渠道。

Some legislators, including Cynthia Lummis, a Republican senator, have supported the purchase of more bitcoin on the open market. If the price continues to fall, advocates might call it a buying opportunity. Crypto fans close to the administration—many of whom will be nursing losses—might well agree. The prospect of the government stepping in seems remote. But when it comes to both crypto and politics, surprises can never be ruled out.

包括共和党参议员辛西娅·卢米斯在内的一些立法者，支持在公开市场上购买更多比特币。 如果价格继续下跌，拥护者可能会将其视为买入机会。 与政府关系密切的加密货币爱好者（其中许多人可能正承受着损失）可能会表示赞同。 政府介入的前景看似渺茫。 但无论是加密货币还是政治领域，都永远不乏意外。