Spring is in full bloom, but a chill is blowing through Britain's draughty homes. The war in the Gulf has pushed the price of natural gas to levels not seen since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Elsewhere governments are acting. Australia is halving its fuel excise tax for three months. Ireland has cut duty on petrol and diesel. Spain has announced €5bn ($5.7bn) of tax cuts and subsidies. In Britain, where one in four people say they could not afford a one-off expense of £850 ($1,120), pressure for relief is mounting.

春日繁花似锦，但英国透风漏气的房屋里却寒意袭人。 海湾战争致使天然气价格飙升，达到了自2022年俄乌战争爆发以来的最高水平。 其他国家政府纷纷采取行动。 澳大利亚将燃油消费税减半，为期三个月。 爱尔兰降低了汽油和柴油的关税。 西班牙宣布了50亿欧元（约合57亿美元）的减税和补贴措施。 在英国，四分之一的人表示，他们负担不起850英镑（约合1120美元）的一次性支出，要求政府提供救济的压力与日俱增。

As in other rich countries, domestic energy prices in Britain are regulated. Every quarter Ofgem, the regulator, sets a "cap" on how much utility firms can charge households for a unit of electricity and gas. On March 31st Cornwall Insight, a consultancy, forecast that the price cap will rise by 18% on July 1st to £1,929 for a typical annual household bill. If the war in Iran drags on, bills will rise further.

与其他富裕国家一样，英国国内能源价格受到监管。 监管机构天然气和电力市场办公室每季度都会设定一个“上限”，规定公用事业公司向家庭收取每单位电和天然气的最高费用。 3月31日，咨询公司康沃尔洞察预测，7月1日价格上限将上调18%，普通家庭年账单将升至1929英镑。 如果伊朗战争持续下去，账单还将进一步上涨。

Despite the grumbling, as a share of median income bills are lower than they have been for years and far short of the dizzying £4,279 reached in 2023. That year, fearing widespread penury, the government stepped in to limit typical bills to £2,500 for nine months. That cost the exchequer £24bn, or 0.9% of GDP. The government can ill afford such largesse now. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, has said that any support would be "targeted" at the poorest households. The Resolution Foundation, a think-tank, says targeted support could cut bills by £275 on average for the poorest two-fifths of households at a cost of £3.8bn.

尽管怨声载道，但与中位数收入相比，能源账单费用仍低于往年水平，远不及2023年令人咋舌的4279英镑。 那一年，政府担心出现大规模贫困，介入将普通家庭账单限制在2500英镑，为期九个月。 这耗费了国库240亿英镑，占国内生产总值的0.9%。 如今，政府已无力如此慷慨。 财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯表示，任何支持措施都将“有针对性”地面向最贫困的家庭。 智库决议基金会表示，有针对性的支持措施可使最贫困的五分之二家庭平均减少275英镑的账单，但需花费38亿英镑。

Before winning power, Labour naively promised that by 2030 the average energy bill would be £300 lower than in 2023. Frustrated by a lack of progress, from April 1st the government cut £150 of levies that were loaded onto electricity bills (a next option could be removing the £125 or so of levies that still remain). The opposition Conservative Party wants the government to waive the 5% VAT rate from energy bills for three years, a move that would cost some £2.5bn. Reform UK favours removing VAT on energy bills permanently. Businesses, especially firms that have not hedged their future energy costs, will also lobby for relief. Britain's businesses already pay nearly twice as much for electricity as the EU average.

工党在执政前天真地承诺，到2030年，平均能源账单将比2023年降低300英镑。 由于进展缓慢令人沮丧，从4月1日起，政府削减了150英镑的电费附加费（下一个选项可能是取消剩余的约125英镑附加费）。 反对党保守党希望政府免除能源账单三年5%的增值税，此举将耗费约25亿英镑。 英国改革党主张永久取消能源账单增值税。 企业，尤其是那些未对未来能源成本进行对冲的企业，也将游说政府提供救济。 英国企业的电费已接近欧盟平均水平的两倍。

Offering blanket relief would be costly and, given the government's limited room for fiscal manoeuvre, anything beyond tightly targeted measures looks problematic. The government would anyway be wise to hold tight for now. As 40% of households are on fixed-term tariffs and only 10% of energy is consumed during the summer, most households' bills won't rise for months yet—rather, average bills will drop by £117 from April thanks to the cut in levies on electricity. But the uncomfortable truth is that as long as Britain remains dependent on natural gas, households will continue to be exposed to energy shocks.

提供全面救济成本高昂，而且鉴于政府财政操作空间有限，除针对性措施外，其他任何措施都存在问题。 无论如何，政府目前明智的做法是按兵不动。 由于40%的家庭采用固定电价套餐，且夏季能源消耗量仅占10%，因此大多数家庭的账单数月内不会上涨——相反，由于电费附加费削减，4月起平均账单将减少117英镑。 但令人不安的事实是，只要英国仍依赖天然气，家庭就将继续面临能源冲击。