Japan's exports and imports continued to rise in March but the trade outlook for the months ahead remains clouded by war in the Middle East.

日本3月进出口持续增长，但受中东战事影响，未来数月贸易前景仍不明朗。

Exports climbed 11.7% on the year last month, extending the streak of gains to a seventh straight month, government data showed Wednesday. That beat both February's 4.0% rise and the 11% increase forecast in a poll of economists by data provider LSEG.

政府周三公布的数据显示，上月出口同比增长11.7%，连续第七个月实现增长。 这一增速不仅高于2月份的4.0%，也超过了数据提供商LSEG对经济学家调查后预测的11%的增幅。

Imports grew 10.9%, slightly higher than February's 10.3% increase.

进口增长10.9%，略高于2月份10.3%的增幅。

However, since the U.S.-Israel war against Iran only started in late February, the March data has yet to capture the impact of disruptions to energy and other key commodities Japan imports from the Middle East.

然而，由于美国和以色列对伊朗的战争2月下旬才打响，3月的数据尚未反映出日本从中东进口的能源和其他关键大宗商品供应中断所造成的影响。

Japan relies on the region for the vast majority of its oil and is vulnerable to disruptions to shipping routes connected to the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway that has been effectively shuttered by the conflict.

日本大部分石油依赖该地区供应，且极易受到与霍尔木兹海峡相连的航运路线中断的影响。霍尔木兹海峡是关键水道，因冲突已基本关闭。

In the short term, Japan's total import bill will likely remain roughly flat as supply constraints limit volumes and worsening consumer sentiment triggered by high energy prices caps demand, said Mizuho Securities economist Yasuhisa Irie.

瑞穗证券经济学家入江康久表示，短期内，由于供应受限导致进口量减少，而高能源价格引发的消费者信心恶化抑制了需求，日本进口总额可能大致保持平稳。

Norinchukin Research Institute economist Takeshi Minami expects the consequences of energy shortages to start becoming more apparent in April.

农林中央金库研究所经济学家三宅武预计，能源短缺的后果将在4月开始显现。

"While the Japanese government has begun releasing crude oil reserves and claims to have secured alternative procurement routes that do not rely on the Strait of Hormuz, a prolonged blockade would likely lead to a visible economic contraction in emerging markets with smaller oil reserves," Minami said.

三宅武表示：“尽管日本政府已开始释放原油储备，并声称已确保不依赖霍尔木兹海峡的替代采购路线，但若封锁持续，那些石油储备较少的新兴市场可能会出现明显的经济收缩。”

That is expected to hurt Japan's economy in multiple ways, including by slowing economic activity and fueling inflationary pressures, he added.

他补充道，这预计将从多方面对日本经济造成损害，包括减缓经济活动和加剧通胀压力。

Disruptions to the flow of energy and other key commodities are also eating into corporate profits as shortages drive up costs for Japanese companies. That could ultimately weigh on the country's economic recovery.

能源和其他关键大宗商品流动受阻，也因短缺推高日本企业成本，侵蚀了企业利润。 这最终可能拖累日本经济复苏。

As rising energy prices risk accelerating overall inflation, flight-to-safety demand for the dollar is adding to the yen's weakness, further increasing Japan's import bill.

随着能源价格上涨可能加速整体通胀，避险需求推动美元走强，进一步加剧了日元贬值，使日本进口成本进一步上升。

Against that backdrop, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep its policy rate at 0.75% at its next meeting on Tuesday as it gauges geopolitical risks in considering when to tighten again.

在此背景下，日本央行预计将在周二的下一次会议上维持0.75%的政策利率不变，以便在考虑何时再次收紧政策时评估地缘政治风险。