"We were lucky today," said England's manager, Thomas Tuchel, after his team's nerve-shredding 2-1 win over Norway on July 11th. Britain's bookmakers enjoyed their own good fortune: England reached the semi-finals of the World Cup, but for betting purposes the match was a draw. By convention, match wagers are settled on the 90-minute scoreline (1-1). England's winning goal came in extra time, saving the bookies millions of pounds.

“我们今天运气不错。” 英格兰队主教练托马斯·图赫尔在7月11日球队以2比1惊险战胜挪威队后如此表示。 英国的博彩公司也同样交了好运：英格兰队打入了世界杯半决赛，但就博彩而言，这场比赛算作平局。 按照惯例，投注以90分钟常规时间内的比分（1比1）结算。 英格兰队的制胜球来自加时赛，这为博彩公司省下了数百万英镑。

Across this expanded 48-team World Cup, favourites have won 64% of matches in normal time, compared with 53% on average in the previous three. Underdogs prevailed in only 8%, against an average of 23% previously. Such results would once have perturbed British bookies, which do well when favourites don't.

在本届扩军至48支球队的世界杯中，实力占优的球队在常规时间内赢球的比例达到64%，而此前三届世界杯的平均值为53%。 冷门（弱队获胜）仅占8%，此前三届的平均值为23%。 这样的结果在过去会让英国博彩公司感到不安，因为它们通常在强队不胜时获利。

Not this time. Bookies have steered many customers towards "bet builders" (or "same-game parlays" in America). At Kambi, a sportsbook supplier, these made up more than 30% of bets at recent football tournaments. Punters might bet on, say, England to win, Jude Bellingham to score, and the match to have over nine corners and more than two bookings, all in one wager. In the Norway game, only one of those outcomes occurred in regular time. Such bets help the bookies' profits. Trading data shared with The Economist by four of them suggest that, despite match results generally favouring customers, all remain broadly on course to achieve their usual margins.

但这次情况不同了。 博彩公司已经引导许多客户转向“投注组合”（在美国称为“同场串关”）。 在体育博彩供应商Kambi，这类投注在近期足球赛事中占比超过30%。 彩民可能会下注一个组合，例如：英格兰队获胜、裘德·贝林厄姆进球、全场角球数超过9个、全场黄牌数超过2张——所有这些都包含在一笔投注中。 而在对阵挪威的比赛中，常规时间内只有其中一个结果成真。 这类投注有助于博彩公司保障利润。 四家博彩公司分享给《经济学人》的交易数据显示，尽管比赛结果总体上对彩民有利，但所有公司仍大致保持在实现其常规利润率的轨道上。

Yet a decent World Cup will not change the industry's broader worries. Tax and licensing reforms in the early 2000s were intended to allow gambling to flourish in the internet age. They succeeded, until the political wind changed. Last year's budget raised the tax on online casino-style profits from 21% to 40%. From April 2027 most online sports betting will also face a tax increase, from 15% to 25%.

然而，一届还算不错的世界杯并不会改变该行业面临的更广泛的担忧。 21世纪初的税收和牌照改革原本旨在让博彩业在互联网时代蓬勃发展。 这些改革也确实取得了成功，直到政治风向发生了变化。 去年（2025年）的预算案将在线赌场类利润的税率从21%提高到了40%。 从2027年4月起，大多数在线体育博彩也将面临税率上调，从15%提高至25%。

And the Gambling Commission, the industry regulator, has pressed ahead with "financial risk assessments", intended to identify customers at risk of gambling harm. Bookies argue that the checks are intrusive and are driving customers to unlicensed operators. Anthony Kaminskas, founder of AK Bets, says 78% of his customers refuse to provide financial records when asked.

与此同时，行业监管机构英国博彩委员会继续推进“财务风险评估”，旨在识别有赌瘾风险的客户。 博彩公司认为，这些审查具有侵扰性，正将客户推向无证经营的博彩平台。 博彩公司AK Bets的创始人安东尼·卡明斯卡斯表示，78%的客户在被要求提供财务记录时予以拒绝。

Gambling's new growth story is America. Flutter, the world's largest online-betting company, and owner of British brands including Betfair and Sky Bet, will delist from the London Stock Exchange next month, making New York its sole stock-market home. Britain's bookies have cracked the problem of predictable football results. Their bigger challenge lies in Westminster.

博彩业新的增长点在美国。 全球最大的在线博彩公司Flutter——旗下拥有Betfair和Sky Bet等英国品牌——将于下月从伦敦证券交易所退市，将纽约作为其唯一的上市地。 英国的博彩公司已经解决了可预测的足球比赛结果带来的问题。 它们更大的挑战，在威斯敏斯特（英国政府）。