How rich is the world economy? The conventional answer is about $120trn. That corresponds to global GDP, encompassing all the goods and services the world produced last year. It is, if you like, the planet's annual income.

世界经济有多富裕？ 传统答案大约是120万亿美元。 这对应的是全球GDP，囊括了去年全世界生产的所有商品和服务。 换言之，这可以说是这个星球的年度收入。

But if you were to ask how rich are the world's billionaires, you would not want to know their annual income. They are not called billionaires because they take home ten-figure salaries. What matters are their assets, from their mansions to their stockholdings.

但如果你要问的是世界上的亿万富翁有多富有，你不会想知道他们的年收入是多少。 他们之所以被称为亿万富翁，可不是因为他们拿着十位数的年薪。 重要的是他们的资产，从豪宅到持有的股票，无所不包。

Finding an equivalent measure for the world economy is tricky. The data are patchy. And every financial asset—deposit, loan, bond or equity—is also a liability for some other Earth-bound entity (a bank, person, government or firm). At the planetary level, they cancel out. What remains are "real" assets: property, minerals, machinery, infrastructure and intellectual property. These treasures, when combined with labour, yield the goods and services that underpin the world's standard of living.

要为世界经济找到一个与之相当的衡量指标，并不容易。 相关数据零散不全。 而且每一项金融资产——无论是存款、贷款、债券还是股票——同时也构成了地球上某个其他实体（银行、个人、政府或企业）的负债。 放到地球整体层面，这些负债相互抵消。 剩下的才是“实体”资产：房产、矿产、机器设备、基础设施和知识产权。 这些财富与劳动力相结合，便生产出支撑世界生活水平的商品和服务。

Since 2021, the McKinsey Global Institute, a think-tank within a consultancy, has tried to track all the assets and liabilities on the world's balance-sheet, real and otherwise. MGI's latest estimate, published on July 23rd, is that the world's wealth amounted to over $600trn in 2025, 5.1 times its annual income.

自2021年以来，咨询公司内部的智库麦肯锡全球研究院一直试图追踪世界资产负债表上的所有资产与负债，无论是实体资产还是金融资产。 麦肯锡全球研究院于7月23日发布的最新估算显示，2025年全球财富总额超过600万亿美元，是全球年度收入的5.1倍。

That total was little changed from 2024. But this stable bottom-line masks drama elsewhere on the balance-sheet. Households saw their wealth rise by $40trn, to reach $570trn. Sadly, few of the gains came from the accumulation of real assets that would also make the world richer. Most came instead from increases, above inflation, in the prices of existing assets. MGI calls this paper wealth.

这一总额与2024年相比几乎没有变化。 但这一稳定的“最终盈亏线”掩盖了资产负债表中其他部分的剧烈变动。 美国家庭的财富增加了40万亿美元，达到570万亿美元。 遗憾的是，这些增长几乎无一来自实体资产的积累。而只有实体资产的积累才能真正让整个世界变得更富有。 增长绝大部分来自现有资产价格在通胀之上的上涨。 麦肯锡全球研究院称之为“账面财富”。

American equities in particular are now worth more than 3.7 times America's annual GDP. (They were worth less than twice GDP in 1999 during the dotcom bubble.) And yet by themselves they add nothing to global wealth. They may be household assets, but they are also corporate liabilities.

尤其是美国股市，其总市值如今已超过美国年度GDP的3.7倍。 （而在1999年互联网泡沫时期，这一比例还不到两倍。）然而，股票本身并不会为全球财富增加任何一分钱。 它们虽然是家庭部门的资产，但同时也是企业部门的负债。

MGI argues that the world's balance-sheet is now "out of kilter" with the underlying economy. Balance could be restored by faster GDP growth or higher inflation. But two other scenarios are possible. Asset prices could stay high because people are determined to save rather than spend, resulting in low interest rates, high valuations and lacklustre growth. Or share prices could tumble, erasing paper wealth. Rise or fall, equities always net to zero at the global level. But when share prices plunge neither the people who own them nor the companies that issue them are happy about it.

麦肯锡全球研究院认为，世界资产负债表现已与底层经济“脱节”。 恢复平衡或许可以通过加快GDP增长或提高通胀率来实现。 但还有另外两种可能的情景。 资产价格可能持续高企，因为人们更倾向于储蓄而非消费，从而带来低利率、高估值和增长乏力的局面。 或者股价可能暴跌，从而抹去大量账面财富。 无论上涨还是下跌，股票在全球层面永远净值为零。 但当股价暴跌时，无论是持有股票的人，还是发行股票的公司，都不会对此感到高兴。