Governments across the rich world are tightening migration policies in sync. New applicants for America's H-1B "high-skilled" worker visa must now pay an upfront fee of $100,000. Britain has reduced the length of its post-study visa from two years to 18 months, and has proposed a 6% levy on university fees. Canada has capped foreign-student numbers. According to the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, the number of long-term migrants arriving for work in the rich world fell by a fifth in 2024 compared with the previous year. The number of those moving for study was down by 13%.

富裕国家政府正同步收紧移民政策。 如今，申请美国H-1B“高技能”工作签证的新申请人需预先支付10万美元费用。 英国已将留学生毕业后的签证时长从两年缩短至18个月，并提议对大学学费征收6%的税费。 加拿大则对外国留学生人数设置了上限。 据由多数富裕国家组成的经合组织（OECD）称，2024年， 赴富裕国家工作的长期移民人数较上一年减少了五分之一， 赴这些国家学习的移民人数则减少了13%。

India is highly exposed. It supplies around 70% of H-1B applicants as well as about 30% of international students to America, more than any other country. Indians also make up 25% of international students in Britain and around 40% of those in Canada. In total 1.8m Indians are studying abroad. That reflects the sheer size of India's population, its English-speaking middle class and the long pipeline of engineers trained in its technical institutes. In the "big four" of English-speaking countries, as would-be applicants call them—America, Britain, Canada and Australia—the number of Indian students has dropped by roughly a quarter from last year, according to Indian government figures. This follows a sharp rise after the covid-19 pandemic.

印度受到的影响尤为显著。 印度约占美国H-1B签证申请人的70%，以及赴美国际学生总数的30%，比例高于其他任何国家。 在英国，印度留学生占比达25%，在加拿大则约为40%。 总计有180万印度人在海外留学。 这反映了印度庞大的人口基数、 讲英语的中产阶级，以及其技术学院培养的大量工程师。 据印度政府数据显示，在印度人眼中的英语国家“四大巨头”—— 美国、英国、加拿大和澳大利亚，印度留学生人数较去年减少了约四分之一， 而此前在新冠疫情后这一数字曾大幅上升。

Cutting mobility will affect India in three main ways. The first is a loss of remittances. Cash from emigrants is worth around 3% of Indian GDP, covering about 40% of its trade deficit. Rich countries became the dominant source for the first time in 2024, according to the central bank, overtaking the Gulf countries where migrants, many of them low-skilled, send large chunks of their pay-cheques back to their family. Those working in America are typically the best paid. A software developer in San Francisco can earn many times more than someone with similar skills in Bangalore, Hyderabad or even Dubai.

人员流动受限将在三个方面对印度产生影响。 首先是汇款减少。 侨汇约占印度国内生产总值（GDP）的3%，覆盖了其约40%的贸易逆差。 据印度央行称，2024年，富裕国家首次成为印度侨汇的主要来源国，取代了海湾国家——此前， 许多在海湾国家工作的低技能移民会将大笔薪水寄回国内。 在美国工作的印度人通常收入最高。 旧金山的一名软件开发人员的收入可能是班加罗尔、海得拉巴甚至迪拜同等技能人员收入的数倍。

The eventual effect on remittances will depend on how long the restrictions last, argues Chinmay Tumbe of the Indian Institute of Management, a business school in Ahmedabad. Recently Donald Trump has wobbled on the subject, saying that America does not have all the talent it needs. That angered his base, some of whom detected a betrayal of America First principles. For now Indians in America are staying put and avoiding holidays back home, in case they get stuck. The restrictions also have a silver lining for India's balance of payments, points out Mr Tumbe. Fewer students abroad mean less money flowing out of India for their fees.

艾哈迈达巴德印度管理学院的钦梅·图姆贝认为， 汇款最终受到的影响将取决于限制措施持续的时间。 最近，唐纳德·特朗普在这个问题上态度摇摆不定，称美国所需人才并未全部到位。 这激怒了他的支持者，其中一些人认为这违背了“美国优先”原则。 目前，在美印度人选择留在美国，避免回国度假，以防被困。 图姆贝先生指出，这些限制措施对印度的国际收支状况也有积极的一面： 留学生减少意味着印度为学费流出的资金减少。

The second effect is that Indians are heading to new destinations. Germany has recorded a 68% rise in Indian students over the past two years as it relaxes its rules on skilled migration and expands English-language programmes. In Russia the number has jumped by 59%. Enrolments in France have risen by more than a third after it introduced foundation-year French-language courses and added more postgraduate degrees in English. That is creating new links between India and other countries, says Devesh Kapur of Johns Hopkins University. Over time, these might lead to other kinds of exports: in the 1990s it was the presence of Indian migrants in Silicon Valley that persuaded companies they could rely on outsourcing to India's IT giants to fix the millennium bug.

第二个影响是印度人正转向新的留学目的地。 过去两年，随着德国放宽对技术移民的限制并扩大英语授课项目，印度留学生人数增加了68%。 在俄罗斯，这一数字增长了59%。 法国在推出法语预科课程并增加英语授课研究生学位后，留学生人数增长了超过三分之一。 约翰斯·霍普金斯大学的德韦什·卡普尔表示，这正在印度与其他国家之间建立新的联系。 随着时间的推移，这些联系可能会催生其他类型的出口： 20世纪90年代，正是硅谷印度移民的存在，让企业相信他们可以依靠外包给印度IT巨头来解决千年虫问题。

The third effect is that Western firms are moving more jobs to India to secure the talent they used to get at home. Wall Street banks have stepped up hiring at so-called global capability centres, in-house outsourcing arms that provide back-office services. These are no longer just call-centre jobs but increasingly core business functions, including quantitative modelling, AI research and pharmaceutical labs. Universities, too, are moving towards the students rather than waiting for the students to move to them. Deakin University and the University of Wollongong, two Australian institutions, have opened Indian campuses. Several British institutions followed the prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, to Mumbai when he celebrated a trade deal with India: the universities of Bristol and York are planning campuses in the city.

第三个影响是西方企业正将更多工作岗位转移到印度，以获取过去能在国内找到的人才。 华尔街银行加大了对所谓“全球能力中心”（即提供后台服务的内部外包部门）的招聘力度。 这些岗位已不再局限于呼叫中心工作，而是越来越多地涉及核心业务职能，包括量化建模、 人工智能研究和制药实验室等。 大学也在主动靠近学生，而非等待学生前来。 澳大利亚的迪肯大学和卧龙岗大学已在印度开设了校区。 几位英国高校领导随英国首相基尔·斯塔默爵士访问印度，庆祝与印度达成贸易协议后， 布里斯托大学和约克大学正计划在孟买开设校区。

The big challenge, suggests Mr Tumbe, will be persuading the best scientists to return to India, as China did with its own high-flyers, known as "sea turtles". A number of government schemes have been proposed to attract back researchers of Indian origin, but are still in their early stages. Even if they feel unwelcome in America, India's top scientists have other options. Besides Europe, Singapore and the Gulf, there is China, which launched a visa aimed at foreign science and technology talent shortly after America increased the H-1B fee. India, by contrast, offers worse pay, politicised universities and a lower quality of life in its polluted cities.

图姆贝先生指出，最大的挑战在于说服顶尖科学家回国， 就像中国吸引其“海归”人才那样。 印度政府已提出多项计划吸引印度裔研究人员回国，但这些计划仍处于初期阶段。 即便在美国感到不受欢迎，印度的顶尖科学家还有其他选择。 除了欧洲、新加坡和海湾国家，还有中国—— 在美国提高H-1B签证费用后不久，中国就推出了针对外国科技人才的签证。 相比之下，印度提供的薪资较低、大学政治化严重，且污染严重的城市生活质量较差。

In the longer term, the restrictions will cut off a route to prosperity for both India and America. Economists argue that the migration of software engineers from India to America was neither a "brain gain" nor a "brain drain" but "brain circulation". The knowledge that high wages were available to the lucky few who came through the H-1B lottery encouraged Indian students to learn computer science and India's technical institutes to expand their courses. That provided talent for Silicon Valley but also for Bangalore, India's own tech hub. As did those who came back from America with skills and money, often starting their own businesses or investing in that of others. For the moment, one end of that circulation is still thriving.

从长远来看，这些限制措施将切断印度和美国共同走向繁荣的一条途径。 经济学家认为，印度软件工程师向美国的迁移既非“人才流入”也非“人才流失”， 而是“人才循环”。 那些幸运地通过H-1B抽签获得高工资的人，激励了印度学生学习计算机科学，也促使印度技术学院扩大课程规模。 这既为硅谷提供了人才，也为印度自己的科技中心班加罗尔提供了人才。 那些从美国带着技能和资金回国的人，也往往创办了自己的企业或投资于他人企业。 目前，这种循环的一端仍在蓬勃发展。