On February 8th, after The Economist went to press, Sotheby's was scheduled to hold the first international auction in Saudi Arabia's history. Among the 162 lots for sale in Diriyah is a painting by Rene Magritte, a Belgian Surrealist, depicting a building—part brick, part cloud (you realise after staring)—conservatively estimated to fetch around $1m-1.5m.

2月8日，《经济学人》付印之后，苏富比拍卖行计划在沙特阿拉伯历史上首次举办国际拍卖会。 在位于迪里耶的162件拍品中，有一幅比利时超现实主义画家勒内·马格利特的画作，描绘了一座建筑——部分是砖砌的，部分是云状的 （盯久了你就会意识到这一点）——其预估成交价约为100万至150万美元。

It is a fitting image: the structure and stability of the auction business are not how they appear at first glance. Despite the search for customers in new markets such as Saudi Arabia, the auction houses' main source of growth is not public sales. Instead, it is private transactions, brokered discreetly by the auction houses. At Sotheby's, the world's largest auction house, these increased by 17% in value last year. At Christie's, the second largest, they rose by 41%; private sales now account for nearly 30% of total revenue, compared with just 12% a decade ago.

这幅画作颇为贴切：拍卖行业的结构与稳定性并非初看之下那般简单明了。 尽管拍卖行正在沙特阿拉伯等新市场寻找客户，但其主要的增长动力并非公开拍卖， 而是由拍卖行私下促成的私人交易。 在全球最大的拍卖行苏富比，这类交易的价值去年增长了17%； 在第二大拍卖行佳士得，则增长了41%；如今，私人交易占总营收的近30%，而十年前这一比例仅为12%。

There are two distinct types of direct transaction. The first is high-end retail. This trend is most evident in Hong Kong, where Christie's, Sotheby's and Phillips all recently moved into new customer-facing locations to attract impulsive shoppers who want to buy something immediately, rather than register to bid and wait until auction day. Christie's has 50,000 square feet in a central skyscraper, better to showcase items such as a white Hermès Birkin bag made of crocodile and a rare camellia-shaped, diamond-encrusted watch by Chanel. Each month more than 1.3m customers pass through Sotheby's "Maison" in a mall in downtown Hong Kong where the firm hopes to tempt new customers with luxury sneakers and a woolly mammoth skull that can be purchased on site.

私人交易主要有两种类型。 第一种是高端零售。 这一趋势在香港最为明显，佳士得、 苏富比和菲利普斯最近都搬入了新的面向客户的场所，以吸引那些想要立即购买的冲动型买家， 而不是注册竞拍并等到拍卖日。 佳士得在香港市中心的一座摩天大楼中占据了5万平方英尺的面积， 更好地展示了诸如爱马仕鳄鱼皮白色铂金包和香奈儿镶嵌钻石的稀有山茶花形状手表等物品。 每个月，有130多万顾客穿过位于香港市中心一家商场内的苏富比“宅邸”， 该公司希望用奢侈运动鞋和可以在现场购买的猛犸象头骨来吸引新客户。

The second, more profitable, type of private sale is of high-end art. When prices for the most expensive artworks fall, many sellers are wary of putting their work up for sale at auction, says David Schrader, chairman of global private sales at Sotheby's. Private transactions offer sellers full control on price and security against lowball bids or no bids at all. A work that is "burned" at auction, meaning that no bid reaches the minimum price a seller is asking, can dent its value long-term. Private sales are also speedy: many take less than two months to complete.

第二种也是更有利可图的私人交易是高端艺术品交易。 苏富比全球私人销售业务主席大卫·施拉德表示，当最昂贵的艺术品价格下跌时， 许多卖家都不愿将作品拿到拍卖会上出售。 私人交易让卖家能够完全掌控价格，并避免出价过低或无人出价的风险。 一件在拍卖会上“流拍”（即出价未达到卖家要求的最低价格）的作品，其长期价值可能会受损。 私人交易也更为迅速：许多交易在两个月内即可完成。

Adrien Meyer of Christie's refers to private sales as "matchmaking" buyers and sellers. The centuries-old auction houses' most valuable assets are their little black books. The houses know who owns the item a buyer might want and which bidders lost out at recent auctions and might be keen on a similar work. Private sales are lucrative for auction houses, though many sellers try to negotiate on the commission. No planning, publicity, exhibition or catalogue are needed, as they are for live events, so costs are lower.

佳士得的阿德里安·迈耶将私人交易比作买家和卖家的“配对”。 这些历史悠久的拍卖行最宝贵的资产是它们的小黑皮书。 拍卖行知道哪位买家想要某件物品，也知道哪些竞拍者在最近的拍卖会上失利，可能会对类似的作品感兴趣。 私人交易对拍卖行来说利润丰厚，尽管许多卖家会试图协商佣金。 与现场活动不同，私人交易无需进行规划、宣传、展览或编制目录，因此成本更低。

Recently sellers have been more keen on private sales, as geopolitical instability, including war in the Middle East, has led to less stable auction results. Last year public auctions were down by 28% (by value) from the previous year at Sotheby's and by 16% at Christie's. Though the volume of items sold at auction has been growing, there has been a slump at the top end of the market, according to Clare McAndrew of Art Economics, a consultancy. In 2024 the 100 most expensive lots at auction fetched less than half the equivalent group two years before.

近年来，由于地缘政治不稳定（包括中东的战争），拍卖结果变得不那么稳定， 卖家对私人交易的热情更高了。 去年，苏富比的公开拍卖成交额比前一年下降了28%，佳士得下降了16%。 咨询机构艺术经济学公司的克莱尔·麦克安德鲁表示，尽管拍卖会上售出的物品数量在增长， 但高端市场却出现了低迷。 2024年拍卖会上最昂贵的100件拍品的成交价低于两年前同等拍品的成交价的一半。

But private sales rely on the existing base of clientele; they do not necessarily bring in new art buyers. The question of how to attract younger collectors is on every executive's mind. The Saudi sale is the first time any international auction of physical works is open to payment with cryptocurrency for all lots; it is an attempt to entice the younger crypto crowd.

但私人交易依赖于现有的客户群，并不一定能吸引新的艺术品买家。 如何吸引年轻收藏家，是每位高管都在思考的问题。 沙特拍卖会首次允许所有拍品使用加密货币支付实体艺术品， 这是吸引年轻加密货币群体的一次尝试。

If private sales continue to rise, it will represent a big shift. Auction houses were founded on the idea that marketplaces enabled price discovery for an artwork, which has no inherent value. Now the question is whether private sales could replace a more transparent market with an opaque one, turning off newer collectors. Fair warning, as an auctioneer might say.

如果私人交易继续增长，将代表一个重大转变。 拍卖行成立之初的理念是，市场可以为艺术品定价，而艺术品本身并无内在价值。 现在的问题是，私人交易是否会用一个不透明的市场取代一个更透明的市场，从而让新收藏家望而却步。 正如拍卖师可能会说的，这是一次公平的警告。