U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly deteriorated in June as households increasingly worried about job availability, another indication that labor market conditions were softening against the backdrop of rising economic uncertainty because of the Trump administration's tariffs.

因美国家庭对就业机会的担忧日益加剧，美国6月消费者信心意外下滑， 进一步表明在特朗普政府加征关税导致经济不确定性上升的背景下，劳动力市场状况正在趋软。

The ebb in confidence reported by the Conference Board on Tuesday was across all age cohorts and nearly all income groups. It was also across the political spectrum, with the largest decline among Republicans.

周二，世界大型企业联合会（Conference Board）报告的消费者信心下滑现象覆盖了所有年龄段人群和几乎所有收入群体。 同时，政党中共和党人中的信心下滑幅度最大。

Consumers remained pre-occupied with the import duties and were mostly undecided on big-ticket purchases. There was a decline in the share expecting their incomes to increase, though perceptions of the current financial situation remained solid.

消费者仍对进口关税问题忧心忡忡，且大多在是否进行大额消费的问题上犹豫不决。 消费者对当前财务状况的看法依然稳健，但预计未来六个月收入会增加的消费者比例有所下降。

The share of consumers viewing jobs as plentiful was the smallest since March 2021, aligning with the continued elevation in the number of people collecting unemployment checks as well as a moderation in job growth.

认为就业机会充足的消费者比例降至2021年3月以来的最低水平， 这与领取失业救济金的人数持续增加以及就业增长放缓的情况相吻合。

"Worry over prices in tandem with a diminished share of consumers who expect their household incomes to increase over the next six months points to still-elevated household financial anxieties," said Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo.

“对价格的担忧，加上预计未来六个月家庭收入会增加的消费者比例下降，表明家庭财务焦虑依然高企，” 富国银行高级经济学家蒂姆·昆兰（Tim Quinlan）表示

"Our forecast still calls for a stall in spending in the second half of this year. We have been making the case that what looks like resilience in retail spending in recent months may in fact be an indication of pulled-forward demand ahead of the full price impact of tariffs and that those outlays are apt to be curtailed in coming months."

“我们的预测仍显示，今年下半年消费将陷入停滞。 我们一直认为，近几个月零售支出看似具有韧性，实际上可能是关税全面影响价格前需求的提前释放，未来几个月这些支出很可能会被削减。”

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped 5.4 points to 93.0 this month, erasing nearly half of the sharp gain in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index increasing to 100.0.

本月，世界大型企业联合会的消费者信心指数下降5.4点至93.0，几乎抹去了5月的大幅涨幅。 路透社调查的经济学家此前预计该指数将升至100.0。

The cutoff date for the survey was June 18, before the U.S. joined in the fray between Israel and Iran, by bombing Tehran's nuclear facilities. Trump on Monday announced a ceasefire. The survey noted that "references to geopolitics and social unrest increased slightly from previous months but remained much lower on the list of topics affecting consumers' views."

本次调查的截止日期为6月18日， 当时美国尚未卷入以色列和伊朗之间的冲突，即尚未轰炸德黑兰的核设施。 特朗普周一宣布停火。 调查指出，“与前几个月相比，消费者提及地缘政治和社会动荡的情况略有增加，但在影响消费者观点的话题列表中，这些话题的排名仍远低于其他话题。”

The share of consumers who viewed jobs as being "plentiful" dropped to 29.2%, the lowest since March 2021, from 31.1% in May. Some 18.1% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get," down from 18.4% last month.

认为就业机会“充足”的消费者比例从5月的31.1%降至29.2%，为2021年3月以来的最低水平。 约18.1%的消费者表示工作“难找”，低于上月的18.4%。

The survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, narrowed to a four-year low of 11.1 from 12.7 last month. This measure correlates to the unemployment rate in the Labor Department's monthly employment report.

调查中所谓的劳动力市场差异指标，是根据受访者对就业机会是充足还是难找的看法得出的数据， 该指标从上月的12.7降至11.1，为四年来的最低水平。 这一指标与美国劳工部月度就业报告中的失业率相关。

Economists said that, combined with high numbers of people on unemployment benefits, raised the risk that the jobless rate could rise to 4.3% in June from 4.2% in May.

经济学家表示，结合领取失业救济金的人数众多这一情况， 6月失业率从5月的4.2%升至4.3%的风险增加。

"Given the concurrent rise in continuing jobless claims, it looks increasingly likely that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.3% in next week's employment report," said Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan.

“鉴于持续领取失业救济金的人数同时增加， 下周的就业报告显示失业率升至4.3%的可能性越来越大，” 摩根大通经济学家阿比尔·莱因哈特（Abiel Reinhart）表示。

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS EASE

通胀预期放缓

Though consumers' one-year inflation expectations decreased to 6.0% from 6.4% in May, the share expecting interest rates to rise was the highest since October 2023.

尽管消费者对未来一年的通胀预期从5月的6.4%降至6.0%， 但预计利率会上升的消费者比例达到2023年10月以来的最高水平。

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers on Tuesday the U.S. central bank needed more time to gauge if tariffs pushed up inflation before considering lowering rates. The Fed last week left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range where it has been since December.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）周二对议员表示， 美联储需要更多时间来评估关税是否推高了通胀，然后再考虑降息。 美联储上周将基准隔夜利率维持在4.25%-4.50%的区间，该利率自去年12月以来一直保持在这一水平。

Stocks on Wall Street traded higher. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields were lower.

华尔街股市走高。 美元兑一篮子货币下跌。 美国 国债收益率走低。

While consumers were unsure about big-ticket purchases over the next six months, they were less inclined to spend more on services, though spending intentions for dining out, motor vehicle services, visits to museums and historic sites as well as fitness activities rose.

虽然消费者对未来六个月的大额消费不确定，但他们不太愿意在服务上增加支出， 不过外出就餐、汽车服务、参观博物馆和历史遗迹以及健身活动的支出意愿有所上升。

Vacation plans were unchanged, though more consumers planned to travel abroad. Plans to travel within the United States fell. Fewer consumers intended to buy a home, likely because of higher mortgage rates, which have combined with still-high house prices to reduce affordability.

度假计划保持不变，但更多消费者计划出国旅行。 在美国国内旅行的计划减少。 打算购房的消费者减少，这很可能是因为抵押贷款利率上升， 再加上房价依然高企，降低了购房的可负担性。

But house price inflation is slowing as weak demand boosts the supply of unsold homes on the market.

不过，随着需求疲软增加了市场上未售出房屋的供应量，房价通胀正在放缓。

A separate report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed single-family house prices fell 0.4% in April, the first decline since August 2022, after being unchanged in March.

联邦住房金融局（Federal Housing Finance Agency）的另一份报告显示，4月单户住宅价格下跌0.4%，为2022年8月以来的首次下跌， 3月价格持平。

That lowered the annual increase to 3.0% in April, the smallest rise since May 2023, from 3.9% in March. Economists do not expect an outright decline in house prices at a national level, though some individual markets could see sharp decreases.

这使得4月的年涨幅降至3.0%，为2023年5月以来的最小涨幅，低于3月的3.9%。 经济学家预计，虽然一些个别市场房价可能出现大幅下跌，但全国范围内的房价不会出现全面下跌。

"While the supply of homes for sale has increased, the housing market continues to suffer from a shortage of supply," said Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

“待售房屋的供应量有所增加，但住房市场仍面临供应短缺的问题，” 牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）首席美国经济学家伯纳德·亚罗斯（Bernard Yaros）表示。

"However, some regions, mainly those that saw the biggest run-up in prices around the pandemic, may be at risk of a period of negative price growth, something already occurring in parts of Florida."

“然而，一些地区，主要是那些在疫情期间房价涨幅最大的地区，可能面临房价负增长的风险， 佛罗里达州部分地区已经出现了这种情况。”