Singapore's central bank tightened monetary policy settings for the first time in over three years as it braces for the economic fallout from the war in the Middle East.

因需应对中东战争引发的经济冲击，新加坡央行三年来首次收紧货币政策。

Policymakers in the city-state are walking a tightrope being trod by central banks the world over: act now to cap inflation at the risk of curbing growth, or wait and risk falling behind the curve.

这个城市国家的政策制定者正行走在全球央行共同面临的钢丝上：是立即采取行动抑制通胀，哪怕可能抑制经济增长；还是按兵不动，冒着落后于形势的风险。

Most other central banks in Asia have held steady for now, but the Monetary Authority of Singapore opted to move sooner rather than later, ending a pause stretching back to July 2025—a year during which it loosened policy settings twice to prop up growth against tariffs risks.

目前，亚洲其他多数央行均按兵不动，但新加坡金融管理局（MAS）选择先发制人，结束了自2025年7月以来的政策暂停期——在此期间，为应对关税风险、提振经济增长，该局曾两次放宽政策。

It joins Australia as the only central bank in the region to have tightened so far since the U.S.-Israel war with Iran broke out.

自美国和以色列与伊朗爆发战争以来，新加坡成为继澳大利亚之后，亚洲地区第二个收紧货币政策的央行。

The MAS's decision was expected by most analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal, as the conflict disrupts critical supply routes, driving up prices of oil and other commodities the small, open economy relies on. That echoes some of the conditions seen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which was the last time the MAS tightened.

《华尔街日报》调查的大多数分析师都预计到了新加坡金融管理局的这一决定，因为这场冲突扰乱了关键的供应路线，推高了这个小而开放的经济体所依赖的石油和其他大宗商品的价格。 这与2022年俄乌战争爆发后出现的一些情况类似，而那也是新加坡金融管理局上一次收紧货币政策的背景。

Like its peers elsewhere, the MAS expressed alarm over the widening impact of the Middle East war, which disproportionately affects Asia's largely energy-importing economies.

与其他国家的央行一样，新加坡金融管理局对中东战争不断扩大的影响表示担忧，这场战争对亚洲以能源进口为主的经济体造成了不成比例的影响。

It painted a grim picture of the risks ahead.

该局对未来风险描绘了一幅严峻的图景。

Singapore's economic growth will slow over the course of this year, and inflation will rise more than initially anticipated, the central bank said.

新加坡金融管理局表示，今年全年新加坡经济增长将放缓，且通胀涨幅将超过最初预期。

Already, the city-state's imported energy costs are up as hostilities choke off the Strait of Hormuz—a supply route through which Asia gets a significant amount of its power needs and other critical commodities like fertilizers.

目前，由于敌对行动阻塞了霍尔木兹海峡（亚洲通过该海峡获得大量电力需求及其他关键大宗商品，如化肥），这个城市国家的进口能源成本已经上升。

Hopes that progress was being made on restoring flows via the strait dimmed when the U.S.-Iran peace talks collapsed over the weekend, and President Trump ordered a naval blockade. However, talks are ongoing.

上周末，美国和伊朗的和平谈判破裂，特朗普总统下令海军封锁海峡，这使通过该海峡恢复供应的希望变得渺茫。 不过，谈判仍在进行中。

On Tuesday, the MAS warned that prices of a wider range of imported goods and services are set to increase in the quarters ahead. As more input costs climb, profitability in more sectors will be squeezed, and shortages could curtail industrial production.

周二，新加坡金融管理局警告称，未来几个季度，更多种类的进口商品和服务价格将会上涨。 随着更多投入成本攀升，更多行业的盈利能力将受到挤压，短缺可能抑制工业生产。

"Even if supplies from the Middle East are restored, global energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time," it said.

该局表示：“即使中东的供应恢复，全球能源价格仍可能在一段时间内保持高位。”

Advance estimates showed that Singapore's economy is already feeling the strain, with first-quarter growth slowing on the year. On a seasonally-adjusted quarterly basis, the economy contracted—its weakest results in nearly five years.

初步估计显示，新加坡经济已经感受到压力，第一季度经济增长同比放缓。 按季节性调整后的季度计算，经济出现收缩——这是近五年来最疲软的结果。

Purchasing managers survey data has indicated building pressure on the financial hub's manufacturers, and the government has warned consumers and businesses to prepare for a lasting economic hit even if a resolution is reached soon.

采购经理人调查数据显示，这个金融中心的制造商正面临越来越大的压力，政府已警告消费者和企业做好准备，即使很快达成解决方案，经济也将受到持久冲击。

Officials have announced a US$778 million package to help companies and households deal with the pressure.

官员们已宣布了一项7.78亿美元的一揽子计划，以帮助企业和家庭应对压力。

The central bank now expects core and headline inflation to reach 1.5% to 2.5% this year, up from the 1.0% to 2.0% predicted previously.

新加坡金融管理局现在预计，今年核心通胀率和总体通胀率将达到1.5%至2.5%，高于此前预测的1.0%至2.0%。

Consequently, policymakers will slightly increase the rate of appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate policy band. No changes will be made to the width and level at which the band is centered.

因此，政策制定者将略微提高新加坡元名义有效汇率政策区间的升值速度。 政策区间的宽度和中心水平将保持不变。

Instead of lowering or raising interest rates, the MAS uses currency as a policy tool to reduce inflationary expectations and boost growth as trade flows dwarf the island nation's domestic activity.

新加坡金融管理局不采用降低或提高利率的方式，而是利用汇率作为政策工具，以降低通胀预期并促进经济增长，因为该岛国的贸易流动远超其国内经济活动。

Despite the considerable uncertainty, the central bank said it is well-placed to respond effectively to any risk to medium-term price stability.

尽管存在相当大的不确定性，但新加坡金融管理局表示，它有能力有效应对中期价格稳定面临的任何风险。

"The MAS also stands ready to curb excessive volatility" in the policy band, it said.

该局表示：“新加坡金融管理局也随时准备抑制政策区间内的过度波动。”