A disconnect is emerging on Wall Street: Stock investors are already celebrating as though the Iran war never happened, but other markets are telling a more cautious story.

华尔街正出现一种脱节现象：股市投资者已开始庆祝，仿佛伊朗战争从未发生过，但其他市场却传递出更为谨慎的信号。

While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite indexes are both at all-time highs, worries about lasting damage to Middle East energy infrastructure have kept longer-dated oil futures well above their prewar levels. Treasury yields also remain elevated, with investors concerned that higher inflation will make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

尽管标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均创下历史新高，但对中东能源基础设施可能遭受长期破坏的担忧，仍使远期石油期货价格远高于战前水平。 国债收益率也居高不下，投资者担心高通胀将使美联储更难降息。

Taken together, these markets are signaling that Wall Street pros don't believe that the global economy will just revert to where it was before the war, even if the U.S. and Iran reach a definitive peace agreement.

综合来看，这些市场信号表明，华尔街专业人士认为，即使美国和伊朗达成明确的和平协议，全球经济也不会恢复到战前状态。

That could be a warning for stocks, but it also may not matter because investors have become accustomed to this type of environment, analysts say. In the coming week, investors will keep a close eye on the U.S.-Iran peace negotiations, as well as corporate earnings from the likes of UnitedHealth, Tesla and Lockheed Martin.

这可能对股市构成警告，但也可能无关紧要，因为分析师表示，投资者已对这种环境习以为常。 下周，投资者将密切关注美伊和平谈判，以及联合健康、特斯拉和洛克希德·马丁等公司的企业财报。

The U.S. seems "to be in a higher inflation regime, given all the shocks over the last five years," said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group.

卡森集团全球宏观策略师索努·瓦尔盖斯表示，鉴于过去五年所经历的各种冲击，“美国似乎正处于一个更高的通胀机制中”。

Still, Varghese said, he has generally been bullish on stocks since inflation has consistently been accompanied by healthy corporate profits.

不过，瓦尔盖斯也表示，由于通胀一直伴随着企业利润的健康增长，他总体上对股市持乐观态度。

Investors hardly welcomed the Iran war. The S&P 500 at one point fell 8% from its prewar level, reflecting broad anxiety about the uncertainty created by the conflict and its potential negative impact on global economic growth.

投资者对伊朗战争并不欢迎。 标准普尔500指数一度较战前水平下跌8%，反映出市场对冲突带来的不确定性及其对全球经济增长可能产生的负面影响的广泛担忧。

Major indexes, though, rocketed higher after President Trump announced a two-week cease-fire late on April 7. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit records even after Trump implemented a naval blockade of Iranian ports. They then extended gains Friday after Iran's foreign minister said that the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open" to commercial vessels.

然而，在特朗普总统于4月7日晚宣布为期两周的停火后，主要股指大幅上涨。 即使特朗普对伊朗港口实施了海军封锁，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数仍双双创下纪录。 在伊朗外长表示霍尔木兹海峡对商船“完全开放”后，这些指数于周五继续上涨。

Oil prices and Treasury yields notably lagged behind those moves, however. U.S. crude for December delivery settled Friday at $72.65 a barrel, down around 8% from its recent high on March 20, but up 14% from Feb. 27, just before the U.S. and Israel first launched missiles at Iran.

然而，油价和国债收益率明显落后于这些涨幅。 美国12月交货的原油期货周五结算价为每桶72.65美元，较3月20日的近期高点下跌约8%，但较2月27日（即美国和以色列首次向伊朗发射导弹前）上涨14%。

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note settled at 4.244%, down from 4.439% in late March but still up from 3.961% at the end of February.

基准10年期美国国债收益率结算价为4.244%，低于3月下旬的4.439%，但仍高于2月底的3.961%。

Yields, which move in the opposite direction of bond prices, largely reflect investors' expectations for what short-term interest rates set by the Fed will average over the life of a bond.

收益率与债券价格走势相反，主要反映投资者对美联储设定的短期利率在债券存续期内平均水平的预期。

Oil prices climbed back near $90 in Sunday futures trading, while stock-index futures fell nearly 1%, amid weekend uncertainty over whether the Strait of Hormuz was open to shipping traffic and after the U.S. Central Command said an Iranian-flagged vessel was seized while heading toward Iran's Bandar Abbas.

周日期货交易中，油价回升至每桶近90美元，而股指期货下跌近1%，原因是周末对霍尔木兹海峡是否对航运开放存在不确定性，以及美国中央司令部表示，一艘悬挂伊朗国旗的船只在前往伊朗阿巴斯港途中被扣押。

Before the war, interest-rate futures suggested that traders saw a 79% chance that the Fed would cut rates at least twice this year, according to CME Group. Now, thanks in part to the uptick in energy prices, that percentage has dropped to 11%. Traders view it roughly as a tossup whether the central bank cuts rates at all by the end of December.

据芝加哥商品交易所集团数据，战前利率期货显示，交易员认为美联储今年至少降息两次的概率为79%。 如今，由于能源价格上涨等因素，这一比例已降至11%。 交易员认为，到12月底，央行是否会降息仍难以预料。

Instead of falling to the Fed's 2% target, key measures of inflation have been rising in recent months. One of the Fed's preferred inflation gauges—the core personal-consumption expenditures price index—is widely expected to top 3% when it is released later this month, up from 2.8% last October.

近期，关键通胀指标非但没有降至美联储2%的目标水平，反而有所上升。 美联储青睐的通胀指标之一——核心个人消费支出价格指数——预计将于本月晚些时候公布，届时该指数可能升至3%以上，高于去年10月的2.8%。

"All of our focus has been on Iran headlines over the past month or so, but in the background we have been getting data that I think supports a bit more of a hawkish picture for the Fed," said Blake Gwinn, head of U.S. rates strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家银行资本市场美国利率策略主管布莱克·格温表示：“过去一个月左右，我们的注意力都集中在伊朗的新闻头条上，但在此背景下，我们得到的数据我认为支持美联储采取更为强硬的立场。”

Some argue that concerns about the budget deficit are also propping up Treasury yields. Last year, worries about the deficit abated somewhat as tariff revenue surged. But that outlook became cloudier when the Supreme Court ruled in February that a large portion of Trump's tariffs were illegal, and murkier still after the Iran war created a need for more military spending.

有人认为，对预算赤字的担忧也在推高国债收益率。 去年，随着关税收入激增，对赤字的担忧有所缓解。 但2月最高法院裁定特朗普的大部分关税非法后，这一前景变得不明朗，而伊朗战争导致军事开支增加后，前景更加黯淡。

In general, a larger deficit means that the government has to issue more debt to investors to finance its expenditures, potentially dragging on bond prices and pushing up their yields.

一般来说，赤字扩大意味着政府需要向投资者发行更多债务以筹集资金，这可能拖累债券价格并推高收益率。

Against this backdrop, some investors say that stocks could struggle to extend their recent rally.

在此背景下，一些投资者表示，股市可能难以延续近期涨势。

Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, said he had concerns that companies would face margin pressure before the war and that the Middle East conflict has only exacerbated those worries.

安内克斯财富管理公司首席经济策略师布莱恩·雅各布森表示，他担心企业在战前就面临利润率压力，而中东冲突只会加剧这些担忧。

Businesses, he said, are facing increased input costs due in part to the rise in energy prices, but they could struggle to pass those costs on to exhausted consumers.

他说，企业正面临部分由于能源价格上涨而导致的投入成本增加，但它们可能难以将这些成本转嫁给已疲惫不堪的消费者。

"It isn't just the damage done to the infrastructure in the Middle East, as far as production capacity, it is the damage done to family budgets, where they had to now pay for a few weeks of higher gasoline prices," he said.

“这不仅是对中东基础设施（就生产能力而言）造成的破坏，也是对家庭预算造成的破坏，他们现在不得不支付数周的高油价，”他说。