Canadian inflation quickened slightly last month with a jump in energy costs, though there remains no sign the spike in oil has broadened into wider price pressures.

加拿大上月通胀因能源成本跳涨而略有加快，但仍无迹象表明油价飙升已扩散为更广泛的价格压力。

The consumer-price index rose 0.1% in September, driving the annual pace to 3.1% in September, Statistics Canada said Monday. That pushes inflation just above top end of the 1% to 3% window that the Bank of Canada aims for, after holding steady at 3% in August.

加拿大统计局周一表示，9月消费者价格指数上涨0.1%，推动同比涨幅达到3.1%。 这使得通胀率刚好超过加拿大央行设定的1%至3%目标区间的上限，而8月该指标曾稳定在3%。

Still, the pace was a tick below the 3.2% pace most economists had anticipated. And inflation excluding gasoline cooled to 2.2% in September from 2.4% the month before. The measures preferred by the Bank of Canada also slowed, with trimmed mean and weighted median gauges of underlying inflation averaging a six-year low 1.85% annually after remaining at 1.95% in August.

不过，这一增速略低于大多数经济学家预期的3.2%。 剔除汽油后的通胀率从8月的2.4%降至9月的2.2%。 加拿大央行偏好的核心通胀指标也有所放缓，截尾均值和加权中位数这两个潜在通胀指标的年率均值降至六年低点1.85%，而8月为1.95%。

Softer inflation for the month undercuts market pricing that has increasingly pointed to an interest-rate increase from the central bank at next week's policy meeting, particularly following comments over the weekend by Bank of Canada Gov. Tiff Macklem that were viewed as hawkish and focused on still-elevated energy prices and risks to inflation expectations.

本月通胀数据走软，削弱了市场日益倾向于认为央行将在下周政策会议上加息的预期，尤其是在加拿大央行行长蒂夫·麦克勒姆周末发表被视为鹰派的言论之后——其言论聚焦于仍然高企的能源价格及对通胀预期的风险。

Most economists anticipate rates will rise if oil prices don't retreat but debate whether policymakers will look to be proactive now given little sign that tensions in the Middle East will disappear soon or they will continue to wait things out, given continued excess slack in the economy and a weakened job market in recent months.

大多数经济学家预计，如果油价不回落，利率将会上升，但他们在争论政策制定者是会选择现在主动出手——鉴于几乎没有迹象表明中东紧张局势会很快消失——还是会继续观望，考虑到经济中持续存在过剩产能以及近几个月就业市场疲软。

"The Bank of Canada will be pleased to see no strong evidence that higher energy costs in recent months are being passed on to consumers," said Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Servus Credit Union and a former Bank of Canada economist. "With no signs of inflation broadening, nothing in today's report should concern the Bank of Canada. Nevertheless, with fuel prices remaining elevated, the Bank of Canada will remain concerned about potential spillovers to other prices in the economy."

“加拿大央行会乐于看到没有强有力证据表明近几个月能源成本上升正在向消费者传导，”Servus信用合作社首席经济学家、前加拿大央行经济学家查尔斯·圣阿诺表示。 “由于没有通胀扩散的迹象，今天的报告中没有任何内容应令加拿大央行担忧。 尽管如此，鉴于燃料价格仍处高位，加拿大央行仍将对能源价格可能溢出至其他经济领域价格保持警惕。”

Arguing for the central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged an eighth time in a row, the share of the consumer basket that has seen annual price growth above 3% narrowed to 29.2% in September. That compares with 37.9% the month before and 37.3% a year earlier.

支持央行连续第八次维持政策利率不变的一个论据是，消费者篮子中年度价格涨幅超过3%的商品占比在9月收窄至29.2%。 而8月为37.9%，去年同期为37.3%。

Still, prices for energy sped up sharply, rising 19% compared with a year early following a 14.5% gain in August after crude oil climbed to a four-month high.

尽管如此，能源价格急剧加速上涨，同比上涨19%，而8月涨幅为14.5%，此前原油价格攀升至四个月高点。

Prices for gasoline jumped 27.8% last month, though that was held back from rising even more steeply by the switch at the pumps to the less expensive winter blend. Prices for fuel oil and other fuels soared 57.8% in September, following a 43.7% increase in August.

上月汽油价格上涨27.8%，不过加油站切换至较便宜的冬季混合油品抑制了更大幅度的上涨。 9月份，燃油及其他燃料的价格上升了57.8%，而8月份则上升了43.7%。

The rise in fuel prices, along with faster price growth in homeworkers' home and mortgage insurance and maintenance and repair costs, helped push up shelter prices 0.3 percentage point to 1.8%, though that remains below the 2% midpoint of the Bank of Canada's inflation target. The rise in rent prices was steady.

燃料价格上涨，加之自住业主住房及抵押贷款保险和维护修理费用价格增长加快，推动住房价格上升0.3个百分点至1.8%，但仍低于加拿大央行2%通胀目标的中点。 租金价格上涨保持平稳。

Helping contain inflation were smaller year-over-year increases for travel tours and groceries. Prices for food bought at stores were up 1.7%, the smallest rise since May 2024, following a 2.8% gain in August.

帮助抑制通胀的因素包括旅游团和杂货价格同比涨幅收窄。 商店购买的食品价格上涨1.7%，为2024年5月以来最小涨幅，而8月涨幅为2.8%。

The central bank is set to update its economic projections when it next decides on interest rates later this month. Its most recent forecast had anticipated inflation would cool to about 2.5% in the third quarter of the year and the average of its preferred measures would come in at a softer 2.1%.

加拿大央行将在本月晚些时候下次利率决策时更新其经济预测。 其最新预测曾预计第三季度通胀将降至约2.5%，其偏好指标均值将降至更温和的2.1%。

"The Bank of Canada increasingly faces a difficult trade-off," said Peter Shannon, senior economist at KPMG Canada. "Soft employment, an economy still operating below capacity and slow population growth argue against tightening. However, energy prices have risen sharply since the bank's last meeting and headline inflation is likely to remain around 3% well into 2027 absent a meaningful de-escalation in the Middle East."

“加拿大央行日益面临艰难的权衡，”毕马威加拿大高级经济学家彼得·香农表示。 “就业疲软、经济仍低于产能运行以及人口增长缓慢，都反对收紧政策。 然而，自央行上次会议以来能源价格大幅上涨，且若中东局势没有实质性缓和，整体通胀率很可能在2027年之前一直保持在3%左右。”