"That our people should live in their own homes is a sentiment deep in the heart of our race and of American life," said President Herbert Hoover, perhaps the most important advocate of mass homeownership in the country's history, in 1931. "They never sing songs about a pile of rent receipts."

“我们的人民应住在自己的家中，这种情感深深植根于我们民族和美国生活的内心深处。” 1931年，赫伯特·胡佛总统如是说。他或许是该国历史上倡导大众拥有住房的最重要人物。 “人们可不会为了一摞租金收据而高歌。”

But a ballad about the rental market is overdue. When rich-world interest rates began to surge in 2022, renting became a better deal than buying. House prices have since stagnated or slumped in many places, and rates are falling. Even so, there is reason to think that the winning streak for renters will continue.

但如今，一首关于租赁市场的民谣早已应运而生。 2022年，发达国家的利率开始飙升，此时租房比买房更划算。 此后，许多地方的房价停滞不前甚至下跌，利率也在下降。 即便如此，我们仍有理由认为，租客的“黄金时代”仍将持续。

According to Zillow, an American property website, the monthly cost of buying and keeping a home—including taxes, insurance, a modest maintenance cost and a downpayment of 20%—came to less than that of renting from 2015 to 2021, an era of ultra-low interest rates. Since then, however, the picture has flipped. Today a new buyer pays about $400 more a month. In several of the country's largest cities, the difference runs to thousands of dollars a month.

美国房地产网站Zillow的数据显示，在2015年至2021年这段超低利率时期，购房并持有房产的月成本（包括税费、保险、 适度的维护费用以及20%的首付）低于租房成本。 然而，此后情况发生了逆转。 如今，新购房者每月需多支付约400美元。 在该国几个最大的城市，这一差额高达每月数千美元。

This is not just an American phenomenon. According to CBRE, an estate agent, there is no Australian precinct where it is cheaper to buy a flat than to rent one. Rathbones, a British wealth-management firm, estimates that rental yields—the amount landlords make from tenants relative to the price of the house—are 5% or so, not much above the 4.4% for five-year fixed mortgages. Given that landlords must also meet steep maintenance and tax costs, this indicates renters are getting a good deal.

这并非美国独有的现象。 据房地产经纪公司世邦魏理仕（CBRE）称，在澳大利亚，没有一个地区的购房成本低于租房成本。 英国财富管理公司Rathbones估算， 租金收益率（即房东从租客处获得的收入与房价的比率）约为5%， 仅略高于五年期固定抵押贷款利率4.4%。 考虑到房东还需承担高昂的维护和税收成本，这表明租客正在享受优惠待遇。

Renters often fear they are throwing away money by handing it to landlords, while buyers build up home equity. But property is not the only investment available. Arthur Cox of the University of Northern Iowa finds that, even from 1984 to 2013, a period in which house prices rose overall and mortgage rates fell sharply, people were sometimes better off if they avoided homeownership. In three of the six American metropolitan areas he investigated, renting and investing the extra money that would have been required for mortgage payments in stocks and corporate bonds was the more profitable choice over the period.

租客常常担心，把钱交给房东是浪费，而购房者则能积累房屋资产。 但房产并非唯一的投资选择。 北爱荷华大学的亚瑟·考克斯发现，即便在1984年至2013年期间（这一时期房价总体上涨， 且抵押贷款利率大幅下降），人们有时不购房反而更好。 在他调查的六个美国大都市区中， 有三个地区的租客将原本用于支付抵押贷款的额外资金投资于股票和企业债券，在上述时期内获得了更高的利润。

True, in some places renters have lost ground. In Hong Kong rental yields have risen from less than 2.5% four years ago to 3.5% today. The shift has been driven by a slump in house prices, which have fallen by a third in real terms since 2021.

诚然，在某些地方，租客的处境有所恶化。 在香港，租金收益率已从四年前的不到2.5%升至今日的3.5%。 这一变化是由房价暴跌推动的，自2021年以来，香港房价实际下跌了三分之一。

But there is a difference between mortgages in Hong Kong and those in other rich-world locations. Hong Kong's borrowers mostly take on floating-rate mortgages, which typically move with the Federal Reserve's short-term interest rates. Elsewhere, mortgages are more likely to depend on longer-term rates. And they have barely budged: despite recent interest-rate cuts, five- and ten-year government-bond yields mostly sit where they did three years ago. In America 30-year mortgage rates remain above 6%, more than twice the rock-bottom levels reached in the covid-19 pandemic. Although buyers can find shorter-term mortgages, they take on the risk of a rebound in inflation and thus rates.

但香港的抵押贷款与其他发达国家的存在差异。 香港的借款人大多选择浮动利率抵押贷款，这种贷款通常随美联储的短期利率变动。 而在其他地方，抵押贷款则更可能取决于长期利率。 且这些长期利率几乎未变：尽管近期利率有所下调，但五年期和十年期政府债券收益率大多仍维持在三年前的水平。 在美国，30年期抵押贷款利率仍高于6%，是新冠疫情期间最低水平的两倍多。 尽管购房者可以找到短期抵押贷款，但他们需承担通胀反弹和利率上升的风险。

Picking a likely victor in the ongoing battle between tenancy and ownership therefore means taking a view on the future of long-term interest rates. Your columnist would suggest that they look worryingly sticky. Concerns about government debt and long-term inflationary pressures are not going anywhere.

因此，要在租房与购房的这场持续较量中选出可能的赢家，就需要对长期利率的未来走势做出判断。 笔者认为，长期利率看起来令人担忧地居高不下。 对政府债务和长期通胀压力的担忧不会消失。

Moreover, in recent years renter-friendly regulation has swept the West. Britain's Renters' Rights Act makes it more difficult for landlords to evict residents, and enables tenants to challenge rent increases via tribunals. Many American cities have frozen regulated rents, as Zohran Mamdani, New York's new mayor, intends to do in his city. Such rules are terrible news for anyone considering making an investment in housing. They tip the calculation further in favour of tenants.

此外，近年来，有利于租客的法规在西方国家广泛推行。 英国的《租客权利法案》使房东更难驱逐租客， 并允许租客通过法庭对租金上涨提出异议。 许多美国城市已经冻结了受监管的租金，正如纽约新市长佐兰·马姆达尼打算在该市所做的那样。 这些规定对任何考虑投资住房的人来说都是坏消息。 它们进一步使天平向租客倾斜。

Buyers have reasons to own a home that surmount cold financial logic. Many feel the same emotional pull that animated Hoover almost a century ago. Others want a secure and long tenure. And in some markets, it is just a question of practicality: finding a large, single-family home to rent can be difficult. But for the cool, unemotional resident weighing up the pros and cons of buying, there is a clear winner. Without a much steeper fall in house prices, a sudden decline in long-term interest rates or a protracted surge in rents, renting will remain the better option.

购房者有超越冷冰冰的财务逻辑的理由来拥有住房。 许多人有着与近一个世纪前的胡佛总统相同的情感诉求。 其他人则希望拥有安全且长期的居住权。 在某些市场，这只是一个实际问题：很难找到大型独栋房屋出租。 但对于冷静、理性的居民来说，在权衡购房利弊时，有一个明显的赢家。 除非房价大幅下跌、长期利率突然下降或租金持续大幅上涨， 否则租房仍将是更好的选择。

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